News
Inflation Risks Rise from Renewed Iran War
June inflation data provided some relief for consumers and the bond market. Headline inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.5% and core inflation fell back to 2.6%. While still above the Fed’s target of 2%, the progress on inflation was a result of the Iran war ceasefire. However, renewed hostilities and the end of the ceasefire are placing upward pressure on oil prices, which have risen above $80 a barrel. Rising energy costs are expected to push July inflation higher. Additional pressure will come from a
Despite Headwinds, Economy Remains Resilient
The economy has faced a number of significant headwinds in 2026, most notably the Iran war, which has caused energy costs to spike and inflation to reaccelerate. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased to 3.4% — the highest rate in three years and well off the central bank’s 2% target. Despite these challenges, the economy continues to post solid data suggesting that recession risk remains contained. Consumer confidence has improved, but sentiment itself is highly
